March 10, 2024: Weakening Winter

It's looking like Old Man Winter is getting tired early these days - I don't think he's going to hang on much longer.

Ice on Wicwas is deteriorating quickly.
Crockett's Ledge, March 8.

We had over an inch of rain on Wednesday night into Thursday which eroded all our snow except at higher elevations and well-shaded spots.  There are a few vestiges left over from ski season, but that's about it.

Just a couple of old ski tracks on the leaves.

It's a little better farther north in the mountains, but even there the snow is melting fast.  I went for a hike in Franconia Notch to see the streams in their late winter glory and there was snow, but the ice bridges across the streams had melted making stream crossings difficult, and in fact, I wasn't able to cross one of them and had to turn back, changing my plans for the hike.

Cascade Brook flowing down from Kinsman Pond and Lonesome Lake.

And that was Monday, before the rain and 50 degree temperatures.

I made my last ice thickness measurement on Wednesday morning after a cold night which firmed up the ice along the shore and allowed me to get out onto firm ice where I measured six inches of solid black ice under two and half inches of soft, porous ice you could cut with a spoon.  When the warm, moist air coming in with the rain hit the cold ice, the fog thickened.  

That white spot is where I cut a hole to measure the ice.

The rain puddled on the surface of the ice.

That would have made for some good skating.

On Friday I saw a fisherman at the boat ramp assessing the situation - he decided not to chance it, as by then the ice was starting to have that gray color that says it's really degrading.  

Looking pretty soft out there on Friday.

It's too early to predict ice out, but if this keeps up it will be another early one.  The earliest ice-out date we've recorded is March 18;  I doubt the ice will gone in just eight days, especially if we get more snow.  Fresh white snow lets the ice last longer as it insulates the ice and reflects the sun better than the darkening ice we have now.  Too bad the inch of wet snow that fell last night all melted into the wet, gray surface of the lake.

Not a very pretty Sunday morning.

Regarding the sun's rays, an interesting phenomenon observed this week was a sundog, where the sun's rays are refracted by ice crystals in the atmosphere, creating a rainbow effect.  The refraction at 22 degrees means sundogs always appear at a 22 degree angle from either side of the sun.  [Ref:  NOAA]  I always seem to see these right around the equinox which is less than two weeks away.

Sundog near sunset, March 8th.

I saw the first geese of the season on the lake this week as well as multiple flocks of ducks circling overhead looking for enough open water to land.  Snow is melting, ice is softening, tree buds are swelling, the snowdrops are blooming - all the signs of spring are here.  But as last night's snow reminds us, this is New England, and Old Man Winter has given us some surprises in the past, so I'm not counting him out just yet.

Snowdrops, March 3rd.